Wednesday 30 April 2014

Canadian Economy Headed for a Wake-Up Call?

The Canadian dollar, commonly known as the loonie, derives its nickname from the North American loon, an aquatic bird known for diving to great depths. Similarly, the currency has taken a plunge since the start of 2013, falling 10 percent against its American counterpart from parity to C$ 1.1.

The period marks a sharp reversal for the Canadian dollar, which enjoyed a strong rally in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Last month the loonie declined to its weakest in nearly five years, reflecting an increasingly fragile economy.

Canada proved an attractive safe haven for investors in the post-crisis years, with the currency being viewed as a reliable alternative to the uncertainty surrounding the US dollar and euro. A stable environment underscored by relatively robust banks and a global commodity boom allowed the central bank maintain higher interest rates than the US for much of the past five years, meaning that holders of Canadian assets could obtain a greater yield.

However, in recent years the commodity rally has stalled and despite a pickup over the last few months, prices remain far from the lofty levels of 2010. While a focus on commodities once gave Canada an advantage over other nations, it could now prove a detriment. Too much reliance on exporting its natural resources has resulted in reduced investment in the manufacturing sector.

Over the past decade the number of Canadian manufacturing firms has fallen by 20% and the sector’s share of GDP has shrunk from 16% to 12%. It is a worry trend, possibly indicating that the commodity boom has masked vulnerabilities in the core economy; something that could be painfully highlighted if food and energy prices tumble.

Improving US growth should boost demand for Canadian goods (it takes in about 70% of Canada’s exports) but the central bank recently warned that Canada’s non-commodity exports were becoming uncompetitive, even at C$1.1. The country’s growth outlook isn’t particularly encouraging either, with real GDP expected to increase 2.4% this year after rising 2% in 2013, marking a third straight year of slowing growth.

Canadian policymakers face a difficult challenge in supporting the economy while trying to manage an overheating housing sector. House values have ballooned, with the average price of a home more than doubling since 2002. Moreover, household debt has climbed to record levels of about 100% of GDP, on par with the US at the peak of its housing bubble. Similarly, at 7% of GDP, residential investment has become an unhealthily large part of the economy, outdoing the pre-crash US and rising much faster than population growth. The sector is undoubtedly on an unsustainable trajectory.

While interest rates were kept at 1% last year, the central bank had a tightening bias, intimating that it would raise rates in the near future to cool excessive spending. But new governor Stephen Poloz adopted a neutral stance in October, recognizing weakness in the broader economy. His dilemma is that low rates could add fuel to the housing boom, encouraging indebted households to increase borrowing, while higher rates could strangle business activity.

Inflation pressures are minimal at present, with the consumer price index rising 1.1% in February from a year earlier, well below the central bank’s 3% upper target. This has built up expectations that rates will be maintained at 1% until at least mid-2015. The prospect of no rate hikes should keep the Canadian dollar at relatively weak levels, helping boost the competitiveness of exporters.

This will help with a necessary longer-term goal of shifting the economy’s growth drivers, which have been imbalanced over the past decade. A transition is needed from reliance on debt-driven household consumption and residential construction to an export-led economy boosted by strong manufacturing investment.

Such a goal involves discouraging housing speculation through tighter mortgage conditions and limits on residential investment, hopefully resulting in a gradual stabilization of house prices. Policies targeted at revamping the much-neglected manufacturing sector will also help provide sustainable growth, effectively sheltering the economy from fluctuating commodity prices.

The deleveraging from an excessively indebted economy will take time and be somewhat painful, but that is the consequence of years of largess. Action now can prevent a severe hemorrhage later. For inspiration, policymakers just need to remember what happened to the housing market south of the border.

Monday 14 April 2014

What’s Behind America’s Soaring College Costs?

Article originally appeared at Quartz and The Atlantic

The growing $1.1 trillion student debt burden in the US has been well documented, yet concerns are subdued. That’s because the burden, unlike the housing crisis, won’t cause a sudden economic crash. Instead, it will prompt a slow strangulation of spending spread over many years. Congress has made some minor efforts to reduce interest rates on debt, but the necessity for such large loans must be scrutinized. And that means confronting the indulgences of colleges.

Tuition costs have soared in recent decades. In 1973, the average cost for tuition and fees at a private nonprofit college was $10,783, adjusted for 2013 dollars. Costs tripled over the ensuing 40 years, with the average jumping to $30,094 last year. Even in the last decade the increase was a staggering 25 percent.




The ability of colleges to raise costs has been facilitated by a sharp increase in federal student aid. Lenders freely dispense credit to students, safe in the knowledge that all loans are guaranteed by the government. Between 1973 and 2012, federal aid (inflation-adjusted) increased more than 500 percent. Looking at a shorter period, between 2002 and 2012, total federal aid to students ballooned an inflation-adjusted 106 percent to $170 billion.






Colleges have effectively been guaranteed an income stream and have used that certainty to partake in an arms race against each other by constructing lavish facilities and inflating administrative processes. The pursuit of education has turned into a vicious circle in which students need bigger loans to pay for higher costs, and colleges charge higher costs because students are getting bigger loans.


Notably, hours spent preparing for classes fell at a similar rate, while there was little change in time devoted to research. Administrative bloat fueled by excessive spending seems to be diminishing the focus on what college is supposed to be about, with the study showing that almost a quarter of professors at four-year universities do not consider teaching their “principal activity.”The apparent escalation in college bureaucracy may be reflected in changing patterns of teaching hours. A national survey conducted by the Higher Education Research Institute found in 2011 that 43.6 percent of full-time faculty members spent nine hours or more per week teaching (roughly a quarter of their time), which is a down from 56.5 percent in 2001 and a considerable decline from a high of 63.4 percent in 1991.




Time spent teaching may be declining, but compensation for those at the top has increased sharply in recent years. Presidents are now paid like the CEOs of successful businesses, as evidenced by the Chronicle of Higher Education’s latest report. The findings showed that 180 presidents at private colleges earned more than $500,000 in 2011, compared with just 50 in 2004. Moreover, the top two highest paid presidents each received more than $3 million.



All this spending has been encouraged by a flawed student loan system that enables unwieldy inefficiencies. Today’s loan model was built with good intentions, tracing its roots back to Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society ambitions, but it was not designed for extended periods of stagnant wage growth and a widening gap in pay scales.

Education is more important than ever, with the comparative return on a degree still high relative to those without college qualifications. But to lower the costs of tuition, government support must be reduced. Lending institutions are too lax in giving out credit, knowing that the taxpayer will support 100 percent of defaulted loans. Without that firm safety net, lenders will be more discerning about borrowers’ fields of study; the expected income for a humanities graduate is not the same as an engineer. Less student aid will also make colleges think twice about their excesses.

Moreover, loans should not be an entitlement. There are too many colleges offering too many places to students. A study last year indicated that more likely to default than graduate, while about 40 percent of students have to take at least one remedial course during their studies, slowing their possible graduation date and increasing debts. These stats indicate that many students are not prepared or capable for college-level academics.

Both colleges and employers must embrace three-year bachelors degrees; the traditional four years is an arbitrary number that just extends the time in education. Institutions can also reduce costs by adapting to the modern age and offer more online learning. But they will only do this is if the government limits the ability of students to pay the prevailing high tuition costs.

The current model has inflated spending beyond the nation’s means, with colleges reaping the rewards while the government takes all the risks and graduates drown in debt. With an abrupt crisis unlikely, hard action may be delayed for years, allowing the noose to tighten on an already fragile economy.